Key Concepts
Volume profile analysis allows operators more perspective into markets by taking into consideration volume distribution across different prices over time rather than just price over time. This gives operators insight into how much value was established at prior prices where the market has traded.
Traders are typically focused on price with little consideration for time and even less for value. However, price is simply an advertising tool in markets. When price is going higher, the market is advertising higher prices to attract sellers. When price is going lower, the market is advertising lower prices in order to attract buyers. This is the same in all markets, no different than when retailers offer sales and prices drop in order to attract buyers so that retailers can clear out old inventory and make room for next year’s inventory.
On the other hand, consider a collector’s item with limited availability. Because there are few parties interested in letting go of their rare items, prices must go higher in order to entice those sellers to enter the market and let go of their inventory. This effect is the same in financial markets.
Value & Acceptance
For example, consider a car that sells for $10,000 over 10 years for a total of 10 million units. Let’s say then that the price for the vehicle increases due to lack of supply. As price increases, there will be fewer people who are interested in purchasing the car as the price becomes more prohibitive.
Additionally, consider those who can afford the car; they will remember that many units were sold at the $10,000 price tag over many years. Put yourself in those shoes, would you be happy to pay the higher price knowing that millions of people have purchased the same car for a lower price? Of course not.
The reason being you understand what was considered fair value for the vehicle across much of its history. Say that prices have increased for a couple years now such that there is ample supply as fewer people are willing to pay the elevated prices.
The advertising mechanism of price will have to be reduced in order to attract new buyers. If price returns to the $10,000 level where people deemed the car to be fair value for many units over much time, buyers who were hesitant to pay the elevated prices will be more willing to consider purchasing the vehicle knowing that many have purchased it at this price in the past.
Balance & Trend
The goal of any market is to distribute goods effectively. The market must find relatively fair prices to do business such that the most amount of inventory is exchanged. Therefore, markets are trying to create balance by finding an appropriate price at which buyers and sellers are happily willing to conduct business.
This is why the market spends more time balancing than trending, a balanced market is doing what it is intended to do. When balance occurs, the market is happy as both buyers and sellers deem prices to be more or less fair creating for much two-way trade. The more two-way trade that is conducted over a period of time within a price range, the more value is established within the range.
Often when a market is balancing, it will do so between two key references, prior areas of balance. If price is balancing and a breakout or breakdown fails, the opposing side will attempt to respond in kind by trying to bring price to the opposite side of balance. This is commonly referred to among volume/market profilers as look above/below and fail.
Getting caught at the point of control of local balance is an early indication of one side edging out. Buyers are edging out in balance if they can prevent acceptance under the point of control and sellers are edging out in balance if they can prevent acceptance over the point of control.
Balance and trend is a matter of perspective; the market is almost always balancing on one timeframe and trending on another. Once imbalance appears with an excess of supply or demand, the market will be out of balance and shift to price-discovery mode and will trend up if there is excess demand or down if there is excess supply.
From a volume profile perspective, the way to determine trends is to observe areas of balance relative to each other. An uptrend is healthy as long as price is balancing, breaking out above an area of balance affirming it as demand, and then holding backtests of the demand zone buyers just broke out of.
The opposite is true for sellers with a downtrend healthy as long as price is balancing, breaking down from an area of balance affirming it as supply, then holding backtests of the supply zone sellers just broke down from.
Buyers are constructive until there is a breakdown from a balance area creating overhead supply and then another breakdown of the local demand zone. Sellers are constructive until there is a breakout from a balance area to leave a demand zone behind and then a break over local supply.