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Essential Guide to Volume Profile

Understand­ing and Trading with Volume Profile

Price is just the ad; volume shows what buyers and sellers truly value. This intro to Volume Profile decodes balance vs trend, Point of Control / Value Area, and developing profiles — so you can spot demand/supply, time entries, and trade with real context and better odds for success.

Key Concepts

Volume profile analysis allows operators more perspective into markets by taking into consideration volume distribution across different prices over time rather than just price over time. This gives operators insight into how much value was established at prior prices where the market has traded.

Traders are typically focused on price with little consideration for time and even less for value. However, price is simply an advertising tool in markets. When price is going higher, the market is advertising higher prices to attract sellers. When price is going lower, the market is advertising lower prices in order to attract buyers. This is the same in all markets, no different than when retailers offer sales and prices drop in order to attract buyers so that retailers can clear out old inventory and make room for next year’s inventory.

On the other hand, consider a collector’s item with limited availability. Because there are few parties interested in letting go of their rare items, prices must go higher in order to entice those sellers to enter the market and let go of their inventory. This effect is the same in financial markets.

Value & Acceptance

Trader Analyzing Chart Patterns
Value is determined by transaction volume over time. Typically, the longer that price spends at a specific price or range, the more transacting was done meaning the more acceptance of price there was and thus more value was established. This market dynamic influences all market participants whether or not they consciously recognize it.

For example, consider a car that sells for $10,000 over 10 years for a total of 10 million units. Let’s say then that the price for the vehicle increases due to lack of supply. As price increases, there will be fewer people who are interested in purchasing the car as the price becomes more prohibitive.

Additionally, consider those who can afford the car; they will remember that many units were sold at the $10,000 price tag over many years. Put yourself in those shoes, would you be happy to pay the higher price knowing that millions of people have purchased the same car for a lower price? Of course not.

The reason being you understand what was considered fair value for the vehicle across much of its history. Say that prices have increased for a couple years now such that there is ample supply as fewer people are willing to pay the elevated prices.

The advertising mechanism of price will have to be reduced in order to attract new buyers. If price returns to the $10,000 level where people deemed the car to be fair value for many units over much time, buyers who were hesitant to pay the elevated prices will be more willing to consider purchasing the vehicle knowing that many have purchased it at this price in the past.

Balance & Trend

The goal of any market is to distribute goods effectively. The market must find relatively fair prices to do business such that the most amount of inventory is exchanged. Therefore, markets are trying to create balance by finding an appropriate price at which buyers and sellers are happily willing to conduct business.

This is why the market spends more time balancing than trending, a balanced market is doing what it is intended to do. When balance occurs, the market is happy as both buyers and sellers deem prices to be more or less fair creating for much two-way trade. The more two-way trade that is conducted over a period of time within a price range, the more value is established within the range.

Often when a market is balancing, it will do so between two key references, prior areas of balance. If price is balancing and a breakout or breakdown fails, the opposing side will attempt to respond in kind by trying to bring price to the opposite side of balance. This is commonly referred to among volume/market profilers as look above/below and fail.

Getting caught at the point of control of local balance is an early indication of one side edging out. Buyers are edging out in balance if they can prevent acceptance under the point of control and sellers are edging out in balance if they can prevent acceptance over the point of control.

Figure 1
The balance highlighted by the white box is the market trying to resolve the overhead supply marked by the upper arrow and the demand zone marked by the lower arrow.

Balance and trend is a matter of perspective; the market is almost always balancing on one timeframe and trending on another. Once imbalance appears with an excess of supply or demand, the market will be out of balance and shift to price-discovery mode and will trend up if there is excess demand or down if there is excess supply.

From a volume profile perspective, the way to determine trends is to observe areas of balance relative to each other. An uptrend is healthy as long as price is balancing, breaking out above an area of balance affirming it as demand, and then holding backtests of the demand zone buyers just broke out of.

The opposite is true for sellers with a downtrend healthy as long as price is balancing, breaking down from an area of balance affirming it as supply, then holding backtests of the supply zone sellers just broke down from.

Buyers are constructive until there is a breakdown from a balance area creating overhead supply and then another breakdown of the local demand zone. Sellers are constructive until there is a breakout from a balance area to leave a demand zone behind and then a break over local supply.

Examples

Figure 2
This chart shows a healthy uptrend with the market creating areas of demand and holding backtest of prior areas of demand before breaking out again to establish new balance areas above old ones.

Here we can see how prior highs of an area of demand are often backtested which is the market testing to see if buyers will remain constructive. A break back into a prior demand zone is a red flag but without acceptance back under the high, sellers cannot get back on the offensive.
Figure 3

Figure 4
Zooming into the area marked by the three arrows from figure 3, we can see that the trend is threatened twice with sellers breaking down leaving overhead supply but buyers defend the local area of demand to prevent sellers from going on offense.

Buyers are again threatened here with a breakdown leaving overhead supply and trading through prior areas of demand but they fail to find continued acceptance under new areas of supply creating for balance on a higher timeframe before buyers break out of the higher timeframe balance to continue the higher timeframe trend.
Figure 5
This kind of “messy” price action as shown in figure 5 occurs when lower timeframe operators are trying to reverse higher timeframe operators. If sellers were to be strong enough to reverse the higher timeframe buyers, they would have been able to defend against supply, break below demand, and repeat. Breaks without follow through were clues that higher timeframe buyers were still interested in defending the trend.

Figure 6
If a meaningful reversal is to happen, the breakdowns from prior areas of balance should be defended fervently by sellers. In the case of the AAPL charts above, sellers would struggle to set a major top until over a year later as shown in this chart.

Key Technical Elements

Point of Control

The point of control is where the most volume was traded over a range. It is a key technical element of volume profile analysis as a prior area of demand is being affirmed as support as long as price is above the point of control since the majority of buyers from the structure are not concerned with their position as long as there is no acceptance under the POC.

The opposite is true for sellers. A structure is being affirmed as supply as long as price is under it as the majority of sellers from that structure are not concerned with their positions as long as there is no acceptance above the POC. See figure 7 for an example.

Figure 7
The point of control of a range is the price where the most volume was traded. Also known as "fair value," as it's where buyers and sellers within a range considered the fairest price to do business. It acts as a line in the sand representative of meaningful change relative to an area of balance.

Value Area

The value area is where 70% of the volume was traded around the point of control of a range. It is meaningful as it shows where the majority of the volume was traded over a range.

If the value area high of a demand zone or the value area low of a supply zone is not violated then the majority of operators from the structure are being affirmed in even more meaningful fashion than if the point of control holds. See figure 8 for an example of a value area.

Figure 8
The value area of a range is where 70% of its volume is traded. It's significant as it represents where the majority of volume was established within a range, roughly all transactions one standard deviation from the point of control.

Developing Point Of Control

The developing point of control is the point of control that is currently forming within a local area of balance. It is valuable as it can be used to determine whether buyers or sellers have the advantage when price is balancing.

Figure 9 shows an example of a developing point of control, notice how price finds support and resistance there as buyers and sellers fight for control of the DPOC to edge out within balance.

Figure 9
The developing point of control shows where the current point of control is. A strong uptrend should see the point of control migrate higher with the DPOC often acting supportive. A strong downtrend should see the point of control migrate lower with the DPOC often acting resistant.

Developing Value Area

The developing value area is helpful to identify as buyers need acceptance above the developing value area high in order to meaningfully move value higher relative to local balance. The opposite is true for sellers, they must hold under the developing value area low in order to meaningfully move value lower.

Figure 10 shows an example of a developing value area high and low, again notice how price finds resistance at the DVAH and support at the DVAL as meaningful change occurs outside of the DVA.

Figure 10
The developing value area high and low shoes where the current value area high and low are. If price is balancing, the value area high will often act resistant and the value area low will be supportive.

Uses For Developing VA/POC

The developing tools are valuable when wanting to assess the strength of buyers and sellers within a local range. A market is balancing whenever there is minimal follow through beyond the developing area high, DVAH, and developing area low, DVAL.

The chart below is an example of a market in balance as neither buyers nor sellers were defending the DPOC and there was little acceptance beyond the DVAH/DVAL. If buyers begin to hold backtests of DPOC preventing a test of DVAL, they are starting to edge out and vice versa for sellers. However, acceptance outside of the DVA is still required in order for one side to advance relative to the local balance.

Figure 11
This example shows a bullish trending session with buyers holding over the DVAH and DPOC.

In this example we see a bearish trending session with sellers holding under the DPOC and DVAL.
Figure 12

High Volume Nodes

High volume nodes are areas where the market has traded a lot of volume in the past, typically meaning much time was spent there as well as volume is calculated by number of transactions over time. Referring back to our example with the car that sold for millions of units at $10,000, the prices around the $10,000 mark where it sold the most units would be considered a high volume node.

If price advances and then retraces to the area, the odds of buyers finding support there are higher relative to lower volume areas because market participants will remember the value that was perceived and established in that area. The opposite is true for sellers if price has been marked down and then rallies to backtest the high volume node from below.

Figure 13
Here we can see lower highs set off of high volume areas.

Here one can see how on the way up, the market again finds pause at these areas, since meaningful value was established at those levels.
Figure 14

Low Volume Nodes

Low volume nodes are areas where the market found balance and established a minimal amount of value. Though the potential of the market finding the area supportive or resistant is reduced, when the market does find support/resistance in those areas gives operators good information regarding the strength of the market.

For example, if the market has broken out of a range and trended strongly from it, the first objective for sellers would be to get price back within the range buyers just broke out of. Knowing that low volume nodes are less likely to support price upon retracement, should a major low be made off of one of the low volume nodes, the market is telling us that sellers are weak as low volume nodes should not be as supportive as high volume nodes and thus for sellers to fail to break it suggests they are weak as figure 15 shows.

Figure 15
Sellers are weak when they are unable to advance to where the market previously deemed fair price to business, a high volume node, and instead fail to advance beyond a low volume node.

Types of Profiles

Visible Range Profile

The visible range volume profile tool plots all the volume associated with the candles currently visible on the chart. It is helpful as a quick-glance guide to show where there has been much volume traded in the past but is best used in conjunction with other tools to establish clarity and gain a better understanding of local structures.

Fixed Range Profile

Fixed range volume profiles will plot the volume distribution of a specific range selected by the user. Fixed range profiles are best used to denote key areas of change particularly if they remain untested or if the market has already affirmed their significance with notable reactions in the past.

Session Profile

The session volume profile will plot each session’s VP as one fixed range VP. Session profiles are effective tools to assess how the market is progressing from one day to the next. A buying trend is healthy from day to day so long as the prior day’s point of control is supportive and a selling trend is healthy as long as the point of control is resistant.

The healthiest trends will have value advancing as well from session to session and ideally have a gap between value areas. The point of control and the value area high and low become good day TF references that also have implications beyond the day timeframe.

For example if during one session there is a hold of a major level, the next session must then find acceptance beyond the prior session’s point of control to affirm the hold of a major level. Figure 16 shows how buyers will defend the prior session’s point of control to have confidence in the advance and sellers must negate a hold of the prior session’s point of control to negate the advance.

Developing Profile

The developing volume profile tool plots the volume distribution of current price action. The developing VP is helpful to determine which side is edging out in balance. In order for buyers to advance, they must find acceptance above the developing value area high, the opposite is true for sellers who need to advance by finding acceptance beyond the developing value area low.

The developing point of control acts as a midline of sorts as in order for one side to advance to the extremes of the developing value area, they must first overcome the developing point of control. Thus, one side having problems surpassing the developing point of control is an early indication of the side unable to find acceptance beyond the DPOC weakening.

Figure 16
In order for buyers to advance from session to session, they must defend the prior day's point of control as support. For sellers to advance session to session, they must defend the prior day's point of control as resistance.

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